CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-29T15:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-29T15:00ZCME Note: The information leading to this Advisory notice includes the following events: 1) the confirmed X1.2 flare at 2024/05/29 14:20Z in the strong solar active region (AR) 3691 located at N28E16; 2) the estimated velocity of the flux rope is 1015 km/s and 3) the historical location of this level of X-class flare has produced geomagnetic storms in the past. The CME produced by that event is heading toward the Earth and in all likelihood will affect the Earth. The magnitude to which this storm will affect Earth is unknown since the directionality (Bz north or south) is not known for this CME. | Additional information from Kent Tobiska: The forecast I provided is for the one in the Northern hemisphere AR 3691 which had a smaller flare at 12-13 UT of M5.2 but was located closer to the center of the disk at N25E10 and a M5.7 at 18-19 UT even closer to the center of the disk. Those are likely to be more geoeffective as I go back through the details. However, I expect a very complex Dst event to occur with several (at least 3, not including any HSS effects) main phase features, each depressing the Dst to lower values over the next 1-2 days.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-31T09:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 89.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Predicted Dst min. in nT: -144
Predicted Dst min. time: 2024-05-31T19:00Z
Prediction Method: Anemomilos
Prediction Method Note:
Notice = WARNING, Issued = 2024-05-29_15:00, Mins_Elaps = 42, PredictStart = 2024-05-31_09:00, PredictPeak = 2024-05-31_19:00, EL = 60, GX = G4, DST = -144, Pr = 89, Sr = SO, Velocity = 1015, streamB_status = LE, issue_time_tag = 2024-05-29_15:42, CID = X174Lead Time: 41.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by WKent Tobiska (SET SWD) on 2024-05-29T16:00Z
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